At Transit Trailer, we monitor market trends closely to ensure our customers are prepared for the future of the trucking and trailer industries. After a challenging year in 2024, the outlook for the aftermarket sector in 2025 is looking more positive, especially for Class 8 trucks and trailers in Canada.

2024 Market Overview: A Tough Year, But Recovery Ahead
In 2024, both Class 8 truck and trailer sales saw a decline. Class 8 truck retail sales were down by 10%, and trailers experienced a more significant drop of 30%. However, the Canadian market showed resilience, with sales of Class 6/7 vehicles rising by 9%. This year, we expect a gradual recovery, with both Class 8 trucks and trailers poised for a positive turnaround in 2025.

Dave Kalvelage, a senior market analyst at MacKay & Company, highlighted that Canada’s market has remained relatively steady, hovering around its 10-year average for Class 8 truck populations. “This consistency is essential for Canada’s long-term growth in the trucking and trailer market,” Kalvelage noted during a recent presentation at the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue in Grapevine, Texas.

2025 Outlook: Positive Growth Expected
For the upcoming year, Kalvelage predicts a slight recovery for Class 8 trucks and trailers. The population of Class 8 trucks is expected to grow by 3.9% over the next five years, reaching a total of 391,000 vehicles. Similarly, trailer populations are projected to rise by 3.9%, reaching 608,000 units. Class 6/7 vehicles are forecasted to see a more modest increase of 2.4%.

In the U.S., where the market also faced challenges in 2024, a recovery is expected for both Class 8 trucks and trailers in 2025, which will positively impact the North American aftermarket sector.

Utilization and Vehicle Pricing Trends
Despite this growth, vehicle utilization has been flat, and Kalvelage anticipates this trend will continue in 2025. Pricing for aftermarket services and parts is also expected to follow historical trends, with a moderate increase of 2.5% projected for 2025. Historically, pricing increases have been in the 2%-3% range, with a temporary spike over 10% during the pandemic years.

Risks to the Market: The Impact of Tariffs
One significant risk facing the market in 2025 comes from potential tariffs, particularly the 25% tariffs on Canadian goods that U.S. President Donald Trump announced would take effect in early February. While the exact impact of these tariffs remains to be seen, the potential for increased costs for manufacturers and suppliers is real.

Tariffs typically lead to higher production costs and can trigger retaliatory actions from affected countries, which could further disrupt trade. The trucking and trailer industries are particularly vulnerable to such tariffs, as much of the equipment, parts, and materials used in manufacturing come from cross-border trade.

Dr. Bob Dieli, economist at MacKay & Company, noted that these tariffs could exacerbate the current economic challenges. “When tariffs are imposed, they often trigger retaliatory measures, which can lead to broader market disruptions and collateral damage,” he said. The looming tariff increases could add an extra layer of uncertainty, complicating the recovery process.

Additional Economic Risks: Slowdown in Trucking Activity
While there is optimism for recovery in 2025, other economic risks remain. The trucking economy has been relatively flat for the past three years, with employment and freight movement showing little growth. Dr. Dieli highlighted that a lack of hiring in the trucking sector often indicates a slowdown in freight activity, which could negatively affect vehicle utilization rates.

Fuel prices have also remained soft, reflecting a slowdown in freight movement. As freight volume decreases, fuel consumption drops, and lower fuel prices could signal broader economic weakness.

Looking Ahead: A Cautious but Optimistic Recovery
Despite these risks, there is cautious optimism for the Class 8 and trailer sectors in 2025. At Transit Trailer, we continue to monitor these developments closely to ensure we can support our customers with the best products and services. With market conditions fluctuating, it’s important to stay informed and ready to adapt to changes.

While challenges like tariffs and economic uncertainties could impact the recovery, the long-term growth potential for both Class 8 trucks and trailers remains positive. Transit Trailer is here to assist you with expert advice, new and used trailer options, parts, and services to help you navigate these changes.

Stay tuned as we keep you updated on the latest market trends and forecasts. Let’s work together to ensure a strong and successful 2025.